Summit Medicine and Pediatrics is tracking the spread of COVID-19 in Arizona. The rate of rise of confirmed cases in Arizona is stable at EXTREMELY HIGH and risk for community spread in Arizona is stable at EXTREMELY HIGH (WIDESPREAD).

Nevertheless, there are several encouraging changes worth noting in the last 7 days, and there is potential to establish more favorable trends…


SUMMARY: (based upon data from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

  • AZ COVID-19 Cases: 1937
    • Increased from 772 cases last week
    • Increased by 151% from last week; by a daily average 22% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of cases at 25%, down from 55% from last week
    • Decreased doubling rate of cases at 3.2 days, down from <1 day from last week.
  • AZ COVID-19 Deaths: 37
    • Increased from 11 deaths last week
    • Increased by 236% from last week; by a daily average of 34% from last week.
    • Decreased rate of rise of deaths at 23%, down from 55% from last week
    • Decreased doubling rate of deaths at 3.0 days, down from <1 day from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Mortality:
    • Increased at 1.9% or 3.7 deaths per day, up from 1.4% or 1.6 deaths per day last week


Details and Analysis:

To date, the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine reports that there have been 1,937 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 772 confirmed cases last week). This is a 151% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 22% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of cases by ~25% in comparison to the previous week, and a doubling rate of cases of 3.2 days. In comparison, there have been 290-606 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (up from 116,505 confirmed cases 1 week ago). This is a 149% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 21%  average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~39%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

There have been 37 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 11 deaths last week). This is a 151 1,000% increase in confirmed deaths, or a  22 143% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of deaths by 23% in comparison to the previous week. In comparison, there have been 7,826 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States (up from 1,925 deaths one week ago). This is a 307% increase in deaths, or a 44% average daily rise in deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~45%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending upward.

From the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center :

Today: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Last Week: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020

To date, the Arizona Department of Health reports that there have been 2,019 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 773 confirmed cases last week). This is a 161% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 23% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~25% in comparison to the previous week.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

There have been 52 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 15 deaths last week). This is a 247% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 35% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~20%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

From the Arizona Department of Health :

Today: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Last Week: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020


From the Arizona Office of the Governor:

On 31 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) issued a Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Executive Order: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Keeping Arizonans safe and healthy as we slow the spread of COVID-19 remains our top priority. Arizona citizens and businesses are already responsibly responding to this crisis. This order builds on the state’s efforts to protect public health by reminding Arizonans to maintain healthy habits and find alternative ways to stay connected with friends and loved ones while spending time at home. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 will ensure we build capacity in our healthcare system, and help protect the lives of those we love most. It’s important to emphasize that there are no plans to shut down grocery stores. People should continue to buy what you need for a week’s worth of groceries. I’m grateful to everyone making adjustments to fight this virus and protect others. Arizona will get through this, and we’ll do it together.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 20 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory 2-Week Extension of Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order 10 April 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Our goal is to get kids safely back in the classroom as soon as possible while providing parents and educators certainty so they can plan and make decisions. I’m grateful to Superintendent Hoffman for her continued partnership and leadership. We are unified in our efforts to address COVID-19, and will continue to keep parents and educators informed.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 16 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order from 16 March through 27 March 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Over the past few weeks and in coordination with public health officials, we have been in close communication with school administrators to provide guidance and be a resource as it relates to the recent outbreak of COVID-19. As more schools announce closures and education administrators express staff shortages within their schools, now is the time to act. A statewide closure is the right thing to do. While this measure will not stop the spread of COVID-19, it will bring certainty and consistency in schools across Arizona.”— Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 11 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) declared a State of Emergency: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“There is no greater priority than the health and safety of Arizonans, and today’s efforts are a proactive approach to ensure the state has all the tools necessary to address the global spread of COVID-19. While our state is not currently facing the number of cases we’ve seen in some other states, we are anticipating additional positive cases — and we’re not taking any chances. Arizonans should not panic — our approach will be calm and steady. This Emergency Declaration and Executive Order continue our effort to protect public health and save lives.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)


Resources:

2020-04-07T18:07:36+00:00
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