We are all worried about the rising morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 disease in the United States. In the interest of trying to look forward in anticipation of the effect of spread of this Coronavirus in our nation, it may be helpful to make a simple, straightforward comparison with another nation that has, by the number, experienced the most devastating effects of the pandemic: Italy.

  • Italy (as of 06 April 2020)
    • Population: 60,480,000
    • Individuals with Documented COVID-19 Infection: 132,547
    • Population with Documented COVID-19 Infection: 0.2%
    • Individuals with Documented Death Due to COVID-19 Infection: 16,523
    • Population with Documented Death Due to COVID-19 Infection: 9.9%
  • USA (as of 06 April 2020)
    • Population: 327,200,000
    • Individuals with Documented COVID-19 Infection: 352,546
    • Population with Documented COVID-19 Infection: 0.1%
    • Individuals with Documented Death Due to COVID-19 Infection: 10,389
    • Population with Documented Death Due to COVID-19 Infection: 2.9%

Notwithstanding differences in cultural interaction, quality of and access to pertinent healthcare resources, baseline seeding of virus within the community prior to detection and testing, etc. between the two nations, it may be of value to note that the US is currently at half the percentage of Italy in population with documented COVID-19 infection (see highlighted data above). Therefore, assuming it were possible to control for all other variables in the spread of disease related to COVID-19, a reasonable projection at the current time for the number of individuals to be identified as having had documented exposure to COVID-19 is between 700,000 and 800,000.

Once again, there are many variables in the spread and management of this pandemic which have been and currently are impossible to identify and control in every nation of the world, and there are many differences between the two nations of Italy and the US which prohibit this comparison and prediction of spread in the US from having sufficient confidence in outcome to draw a definitive conclusion. Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to track this comparative data to look for patterns which may help to manage the spread of this disease within our nation.

“The biggest challenge we have in fighting the spread of COVID-19 in our nation is developing multiple methods and strategies for accurate and reliable predictability. It is no longer enough to treat the disease. We must also effectively anticipate, suppress and ultimately prevent its appearance.” — Dr. Mike