Summit Medicine and Pediatrics is tracking the spread of COVID-19 in Arizona.

  • The prevalence of cases in Arizona is considered WIDESPREAD and continues to INCREASE.
  • The rate of rise of confirmed cases in Arizona is considered EXTREMELY HIGH and remains STABLE.
  • The risk for community spread in Arizona is considered EXTREMELY HIGH and remains STABLE.
  • The percent mortality of cases in Arizona is considered MODERATE and continues to INCREASE.
  • The rate of rise of mortality in Arizona is considered LOW and continues to DECREASE.

There continues to be several encouraging changes worth noting in the last 7 days, and there is greater potential to establish more favorable trends…


SUMMARY: (based upon data from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

  • AZ COVID-19 Cases: 3112
    • Increased from 1937 cases last week
    • Increased by 60% from last week; by a daily average 8.6% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of cases by 60%, down for two consecutive weeks
    • Increased doubling rate of cases at 8.1 days, up from 3.3 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Deaths: 71
    • Increased from 37 deaths last week
    • Increased by  92% from last week; by a daily average of 13% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of deaths by 39%, down for two consecutive weeks
    • Increased doubling rate of deaths at 5.3 days, up from 2.1 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Mortality:
    • Increased Percent Mortality at 2.28% or 1.0 deaths per day, up from 1.91% or 0.9 deaths per day last week
    • Decreased Rate of Percent Mortality at 0.37%, down from 0.49% last week

Graphic representation of pertinent data may be found here: COVID-19 Weekly Graphs


Details and Analysis:

To date, the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine reports that there have been 3,112 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 1,937 confirmed cases last week). This is a 60% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 8.6% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of cases by ~60% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of cases has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The doubling rate of cases is 8.1 days, up from 3.2 days in the previous week, and indicates a substantial and favorable change. In comparison, there have been 519,453 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, up from 290,606 confirmed cases 1 week ago. This is a 79% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 11% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~50%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in confirmed cases in the United States for two consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average for two consecutive weeks, and continues to trend downward.

There have been 71 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 37 deaths last week). This is a 92% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 13% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of deaths by ~40% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of death has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The doubling rate of death 5.3 days, up from 2.1 days in the previous week, and indicates a substantial and favorable change. In comparison, there have been 20,071 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States (up from 7,826 deaths one week ago). This is a 156% increase in deaths, or a 22% average daily rise in deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~50%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in death due to COVID-19 in the United States for two consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average for two consecutive weeks, and is trending downward.

From the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center :

Today:Saturday, 11 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020

To date, the Arizona Department of Health reports that there have been 3,393 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 2,019 confirmed cases last week). This is a 68% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 9.7% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~42% in comparison to the previous week.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

There have been 108 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 52 deaths last week). This is a 108% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 15% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~43%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

From the Arizona Department of Health :

Today:Saturday, 11 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020


From the Arizona Office of the Governor:

On 31 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) issued a Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Executive Order: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Keeping Arizonans safe and healthy as we slow the spread of COVID-19 remains our top priority. Arizona citizens and businesses are already responsibly responding to this crisis. This order builds on the state’s efforts to protect public health by reminding Arizonans to maintain healthy habits and find alternative ways to stay connected with friends and loved ones while spending time at home. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 will ensure we build capacity in our healthcare system, and help protect the lives of those we love most. It’s important to emphasize that there are no plans to shut down grocery stores. People should continue to buy what you need for a week’s worth of groceries. I’m grateful to everyone making adjustments to fight this virus and protect others. Arizona will get through this, and we’ll do it together.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 20 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory 2-Week Extension of Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order 10 April 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Our goal is to get kids safely back in the classroom as soon as possible while providing parents and educators certainty so they can plan and make decisions. I’m grateful to Superintendent Hoffman for her continued partnership and leadership. We are unified in our efforts to address COVID-19, and will continue to keep parents and educators informed.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 16 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order from 16 March through 27 March 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Over the past few weeks and in coordination with public health officials, we have been in close communication with school administrators to provide guidance and be a resource as it relates to the recent outbreak of COVID-19. As more schools announce closures and education administrators express staff shortages within their schools, now is the time to act. A statewide closure is the right thing to do. While this measure will not stop the spread of COVID-19, it will bring certainty and consistency in schools across Arizona.”— Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 11 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) declared a State of Emergency: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“There is no greater priority than the health and safety of Arizonans, and today’s efforts are a proactive approach to ensure the state has all the tools necessary to address the global spread of COVID-19. While our state is not currently facing the number of cases we’ve seen in some other states, we are anticipating additional positive cases — and we’re not taking any chances. Arizonans should not panic — our approach will be calm and steady. This Emergency Declaration and Executive Order continue our effort to protect public health and save lives.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)


Resources:

2020-04-13T03:35:23+00:00
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