Summit Medicine and Pediatrics is tracking the spread and impact of COVID-19 in Arizona.

  • The prevalence (case proportion) of cases in Arizona is WIDESPREAD and is INCREASING.
  • The incidence (rate of occurrence) of cases in Arizona is EXTREMELY HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The doubling rate of cases in Arizona is MODERATE and is INCREASING at a LOWER rate.
  • The mortality (deaths per week) in Arizona is HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The mortality ratio (deaths per case) in Arizona is MODERATE and is INCREASING.
  • The mortality rate (deaths per population) in Arizona is LOW and is INCREASING at a HIGHER rate.
  • The doubling rate of deaths in Arizona is MODERATE and is INCREASING at a LOWER rate.

There gains in control of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality the previous week have been largely reversed in the last 7 days. However, this week, there is a significant discrepancy in the Arizona data presented by Johns Hopkins University & Medicine and the Arizona Department of Health, and the conclusions drawn based upon analysis of each set of data may differ.


SUMMARY: (based upon data from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

  • AZ COVID-19 Cases: 4,511
    • Increased from 3,112 cases last week
    • Increased by 45% from last week; by a daily average 6.5% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of cases by 25%, lower for 3 consecutive weeks
    • Increased doubling rate of cases at 10.9 days, up from 8.1 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Deaths: 127
    • Increased from 71 deaths last week
    • Increased by  79% from last week; by a daily average of 11% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of deaths by 12%, lower for 3 consecutive weeks
    • Increased doubling rate of deaths at 6.2 days, up from 5.3 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Mortality:
    • Increased Cumulative Mortality at 1.3 deaths/day in 6 weeks, higher from 1.0 deaths/day in 5 weeks and higher for 6 consecutive weeks
    • Increased Interval Mortality at 3.1 deaths/day in 7 days, higher from 1.1 deaths/day last week and higher for 1 consecutive week
    • Increased Mortality Rate 0.008%, higher from 0.0005% last week and higher for 4 consecutive weeks

Graphs:

Graphic representation of pertinent data may be found here: COVID-19 Weekly Graphs


Details and Analysis:

To date, the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine reports that there have been 4,511 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 3,112 confirmed cases last week). This is a 45% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 6.5% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of cases by ~25% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of cases has fallen for 3 consecutive weeks. The doubling rate of cases is 10.9 days, up from 8.1 days in the previous week, and is a sustained and favorable change. In comparison, there have been 706,856 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, up from 519,453 confirmed cases 1 week ago. This is a 36% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 5.1% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~50%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in confirmed cases in the United States for 3 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average, and reverses a previous trend.

There have been 127 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 71 deaths last week). This is a 92% increase in confirmed deaths, or an 11% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of deaths by ~12% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of death has fallen for 3 consecutive weeks. The doubling rate of death is 6.2 days, up from 5.3 days in the previous week, and indicates a sustained and favorable change. In comparison, there have been 37,087 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States (up from 20,071 deaths one week ago). This is an 85% increase in deaths, or a 12% average daily rise in deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~45%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in death due to COVID-19 in the United States for 3 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average, and reverses a previous trend.

From the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center :

Today: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020

To date, the Arizona Department of Health reports that there have been 4,507 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 3,393 confirmed cases last week). This is a 33% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 4.7% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~50% in comparison to the previous week.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

There have been 177 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 108 deaths last week). This is a 64% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 9.1% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~40%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUBCEEDS the national average and is trending downward.

From the Arizona Department of Health :

Today: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020


From the Arizona Office of the Governor:

On 31 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) issued a Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Executive Order: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Keeping Arizonans safe and healthy as we slow the spread of COVID-19 remains our top priority. Arizona citizens and businesses are already responsibly responding to this crisis. This order builds on the state’s efforts to protect public health by reminding Arizonans to maintain healthy habits and find alternative ways to stay connected with friends and loved ones while spending time at home. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 will ensure we build capacity in our healthcare system, and help protect the lives of those we love most. It’s important to emphasize that there are no plans to shut down grocery stores. People should continue to buy what you need for a week’s worth of groceries. I’m grateful to everyone making adjustments to fight this virus and protect others. Arizona will get through this, and we’ll do it together.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 20 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory 2-Week Extension of Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order 10 April 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Our goal is to get kids safely back in the classroom as soon as possible while providing parents and educators certainty so they can plan and make decisions. I’m grateful to Superintendent Hoffman for her continued partnership and leadership. We are unified in our efforts to address COVID-19, and will continue to keep parents and educators informed.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 16 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order from 16 March through 27 March 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Over the past few weeks and in coordination with public health officials, we have been in close communication with school administrators to provide guidance and be a resource as it relates to the recent outbreak of COVID-19. As more schools announce closures and education administrators express staff shortages within their schools, now is the time to act. A statewide closure is the right thing to do. While this measure will not stop the spread of COVID-19, it will bring certainty and consistency in schools across Arizona.”— Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 11 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) declared a State of Emergency: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“There is no greater priority than the health and safety of Arizonans, and today’s efforts are a proactive approach to ensure the state has all the tools necessary to address the global spread of COVID-19. While our state is not currently facing the number of cases we’ve seen in some other states, we are anticipating additional positive cases — and we’re not taking any chances. Arizonans should not panic — our approach will be calm and steady. This Emergency Declaration and Executive Order continue our effort to protect public health and save lives.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)


Resources:

2020-04-18T16:58:05+00:00
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