COVID-19 Pandemic in Arizona: Weekly Update, 16 May 2020

Summit Medicine and Pediatrics is tracking the spread and impact of COVID-19 in Arizona.

  • The prevalence (case proportion) of cases in Arizona is WIDESPREAD and is INCREASING.
  • The incidence (rate of occurrence) of cases in Arizona is EXTREMELY HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The doubling rate of cases in Arizona is MODERATE and is DECREASING.
  • The mortality (deaths per week) in Arizona is MODERATE and is DECREASING.
  • The mortality ratio (deaths per case) in Arizona is MODERATE and is DECREASING.
  • The mortality rate (deaths per population) in Arizona is LOW and is DECREASING.
  • The doubling rate of deaths in Arizona is MODERATE and is INCREASING.

The number of cases of COVID-19 continues to rise in Arizona, and, the rate of rise of cases has increased in the last week. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 has decreased in the last week, reversing a previously unfavorable rise in deaths from the prior week. There has been a corresponding and reassuring rise in the doubling rate of deaths in Arizona.

SUMMARY: (based upon data from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

  • AZ COVID-19 Cases: 12,499
    • Increased from 9.030 cases last week
    • Increased by 38% from last week; by a daily average 5.4% from last week
    • Increased rate of rise of cases by 184%, higher in comparison to last week
    • Decreased doubling rate of cases at 12.8 days, down from 36.9 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Deaths: 622
    • Increased from 531 deaths last week
    • Increased by 17% from last week; by a daily average of 2.4% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of deaths by 72%, lower in comparison to last week
    • Increased doubling rate of deaths at 28.7 days, up from 7.9 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Mortality:
    • Increased Cumulative Mortality at 8.9 deaths/day in 10 weeks, higher from 8.4 deaths/day in 9 weeks and higher for 10 consecutive weeks
    • Decreased Interval Mortality at 13.0 deaths/day in the last 7 days, lower from 29.0 deaths/day in the previous 7 days, and lower for 2 consecutive weeks
    • Decreased Mortality Rate at 0.0013%, lower from 0.0028% last week, reversing a previous trend

Graphs:

Graphic representation of pertinent data may be found here: COVID-19 Weekly Graphs

NEW DATA: COVID-19 Cumulative Positive Tests:


Details and Analysis:

To date, the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine reports that there have been 12,499 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 9.030 confirmed cases last week). This is a 38% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 5.4% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week. This represents a higher rate of rise of cases by 184% in comparison to the previous week, and the increased rate of rise of cases has reverses the favorable change from the previous week. The doubling rate of cases is 36.9 days, up from 14.8 days in the previous week. In comparison, there have been 1,469,251 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, up from 1,282,765 confirmed cases 1 week ago. This is a 15% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 2.0% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by 10%, and a decrease in the average daily rise in confirmed cases in the United States for 2 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average.

There have been 622 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 531 deaths last week). This is a 17% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 2.4% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week. This represents a higher rate of rise of deaths by 72% in comparison to the previous week, lower in comparison t0 the previous week. The doubling rate of death is 28.7 days, up from 7.9 days in the previous week, and indicates a significant and reassuring change. In comparison, there have been 88,242 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States (up from 77,915 deaths one week ago). This is a 13% increase in deaths, or a 1.9% average daily rise in deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~33%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in death due to COVID-19 in the United States for 8 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average.

From the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center :

Today: Saturday, 16 May 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 09 May 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 02 May 2020

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 25 April 2020

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Six Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Seven Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Eight Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Nine Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020

To date, the Arizona Department of Health reports that there have been 13,462 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 10,923 confirmed cases last week). This is a 23% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 3.3% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~25% in comparison to the previous week.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for the last week.

There have been 653 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 492 deaths last week). This is a 33% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 4.7% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~55%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for the last week.

From the Arizona Department of Health :

Today: Saturday, 16 May 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 09 May 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 02 May 2020

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 25 April 2020

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Six Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Seven Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Eight Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Nine Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020


From the Arizona Office of the Governor:

On 04 May 2020, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced he next steps Arizona will take to gradually re-energize the economy. The Governor issued an Executive Order allowing cosmetologists and barber shops to resume appointment-based services this Friday, May 8th and restaurants and coffee shops to resume dine-in services with physical distancing measures on Monday, May 11th. The Governor’s Office also released additional guidelines to keep customers and employees safe.

“Arizona continues to focus on protecting public health, supporting those in need and ensuring we’re taking the necessary steps to return stronger. Our efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are working — and Arizonans are still encouraged to limit time away from home. Arizona will continue to take a steady approach and work with the Arizona Department of Health Services as we breathe life back into our businesses and provide guidance on reopening. More to come.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 29 April 2020, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced an extension of physical distancing measures while laying out a step-by-step approach to continue re-energizing Arizona’s economy. The Governor issued an Executive Order extending Arizona’s Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Order until May 15, 2020.

“Arizona’s focus has been protecting public health and slowing the spread of COVID-19 — and this approach is working. Physical distancing is making a difference. We’re slowing the spread. The last thing we want to do now is undo these gains. Today’s announcement continues Arizona’s calm, steady approach while taking new steps to breathe life into our small businesses. Arizona is eager to reenergize our economy, and we will continue to take a gradual, step-by-step approach that’s guided by data and public health.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 22 April 2020, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) held a news conference in which he outlined in detail his statewide plan to address the COVID-19 Pandemic: Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected, Return Stronger Campaign

On 31 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) issued a Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Executive Order: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Keeping Arizonans safe and healthy as we slow the spread of COVID-19 remains our top priority. Arizona citizens and businesses are already responsibly responding to this crisis. This order builds on the state’s efforts to protect public health by reminding Arizonans to maintain healthy habits and find alternative ways to stay connected with friends and loved ones while spending time at home. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 will ensure we build capacity in our healthcare system, and help protect the lives of those we love most. It’s important to emphasize that there are no plans to shut down grocery stores. People should continue to buy what you need for a week’s worth of groceries. I’m grateful to everyone making adjustments to fight this virus and protect others. Arizona will get through this, and we’ll do it together.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 20 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory 2-Week Extension of Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order 10 April 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Our goal is to get kids safely back in the classroom as soon as possible while providing parents and educators certainty so they can plan and make decisions. I’m grateful to Superintendent Hoffman for her continued partnership and leadership. We are unified in our efforts to address COVID-19, and will continue to keep parents and educators informed.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 16 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order from 16 March through 27 March 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Over the past few weeks and in coordination with public health officials, we have been in close communication with school administrators to provide guidance and be a resource as it relates to the recent outbreak of COVID-19. As more schools announce closures and education administrators express staff shortages within their schools, now is the time to act. A statewide closure is the right thing to do. While this measure will not stop the spread of COVID-19, it will bring certainty and consistency in schools across Arizona.”— Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 11 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) declared a State of Emergency: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“There is no greater priority than the health and safety of Arizonans, and today’s efforts are a proactive approach to ensure the state has all the tools necessary to address the global spread of COVID-19. While our state is not currently facing the number of cases we’ve seen in some other states, we are anticipating additional positive cases — and we’re not taking any chances. Arizonans should not panic — our approach will be calm and steady. This Emergency Declaration and Executive Order continue our effort to protect public health and save lives.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)


Resources:

2020-05-17T19:24:32+00:00