COVID-19 Pandemic in Arizona: Weekly Update, April 25, 2020

Summit Medicine and Pediatrics is tracking the spread and impact of COVID-19 in Arizona.

  • The prevalence (case proportion) of cases in Arizona is WIDESPREAD and is INCREASING.
  • The incidence (rate of occurrence) of cases in Arizona is EXTREMELY HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The doubling rate of cases in Arizona is MODERATE and is INCREASING at a HIGHER rate.
  • The mortality (deaths per week) in Arizona is HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The mortality ratio (deaths per case) in Arizona is HIGH and is INCREASING.
  • The mortality rate (deaths per population) in Arizona is HIGH and is INCREASING at a HIGHER rate.
  • The doubling rate of deaths in Arizona is MODERATE and is DECREASING at a HIGHER rate.

Unfortunately, the gains in control of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality 2 weeks ago have been completely reversed in the last 14 days. Although the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase, the rate of rise of cases continues to fall. However, There has been a substantial and worrisome jump in the number and rate of rise of deaths, as well as a dramatic drop in the doubling rate of deaths in Arizona.

SUMMARY: (based upon data from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

  • AZ COVID-19 Cases: 5,980
    • Increased from 4,511 cases last week
    • Increased by 33% from last week; by a daily average 4.7% from last week
    • Decreased rate of rise of cases by 25%, lower for 4 consecutive weeks
    • Increased doubling rate of cases at 15.1 days, up from 10.9 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Deaths: 266
    • Increased from 127 deaths last week
    • Increased by 109% from last week; by a daily average of 16% from last week
    • Increased rate of rise of deaths by 38%, higher for the last week
    • Decreased doubling rate of deaths at 4.5 days, down from 6.2 days from last week
  • AZ COVID-19 Mortality:
    • Increased Cumulative Mortality at 2.8 deaths/day in 7 weeks, higher from 1.3 deaths/day in 6 weeks and higher for 7 consecutive weeks
    • Increased Interval Mortality at 11.9 deaths/day in 7 days, higher from 3.1 deaths/day last week and higher for 2 consecutive weeks
    • Increased Mortality Rate at 0.0019%, higher from 0.0008% last week and higher for 5 consecutive weeks

Graphs:

Graphic representation of pertinent data may be found here: COVID-19 Weekly Graphs


Details and Analysis:

To date, the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine reports that there have been 5.980 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 4,511 confirmed cases last week). This is a 33% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 4.7% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week. This represents a lower rate of rise of cases by ~25% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of cases has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks. The doubling rate of cases is 15.1 days, up from 10.9 days in the previous week, and is a sustained and favorable change. In comparison, there have been 924,576 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, up from 706,856 confirmed cases 1 week ago. This is a 31% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or an 4.4% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~14%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in confirmed cases in the United States for 4 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for 2 consecutive weeks.

There have been 266 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up substantially from 127 deaths last week). This is a remarkable 109% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 16% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week. This represents a higher rate of rise of deaths by ~38% in comparison to the previous week, and the rate of rise of death has risen markedly in the last week, reversing a previous trend. The doubling rate of death is 4.5 days, down from 6.2 days in the previous week, and indicates a significant and unfavorable change. In comparison, there have been 52,782 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States (up from 37,087 deaths one week ago). This is a 42% increase in deaths, or a 6% average daily rise in deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~50%, and a reduction in the average daily rise in death due to COVID-19 in the United States for 4 consecutive weeks.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for 2 consecutive weeks.

From the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center :

Today: Saturday, 25 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Six Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020

To date, the Arizona Department of Health reports that there have been 6,280 confirmed cases of COVID-19 throughout the State of Arizona (up from 4,507 confirmed cases last week). This is a 39% increase in weekly confirmed cases, or a 5.5% average daily rise in confirmed cases over the last week, a higher rate of rise by ~18% in comparison to the previous week.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for the last week.

There have been 273 recorded deaths in the State of Arizona due to COVID-19 (up from 177 deaths last week). This is a 54% increase in confirmed deaths, or a 7.7% average daily rise in confirmed deaths over the last week, a lower rate of rise by ~18%.

This data suggests that the rate of rise of deaths due to COVID-19 in Arizona SUPERCEDES the national average for the last week.

From the Arizona Department of Health :

Today: Saturday, 25 April 2020

Last Week: Saturday, 18 April 2020

Two Weeks Ago: Saturday, 11 April 2020

Three Weeks Ago: Saturday, 04 April 2020:

Four Weeks Ago: Saturday, 28 March 2020:

Five Weeks Ago: Saturday, 21 March 2020:

Six Weeks Ago: Saturday, 14 March 2020


From the Arizona Office of the Governor:

On 22 April 2020, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) held a news conference in which he outlined in detail his statewide plan to address the COVID-19 Pandemic: Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected, Return Stronger Campaign

On 31 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) issued a Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected Executive Order: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Keeping Arizonans safe and healthy as we slow the spread of COVID-19 remains our top priority. Arizona citizens and businesses are already responsibly responding to this crisis. This order builds on the state’s efforts to protect public health by reminding Arizonans to maintain healthy habits and find alternative ways to stay connected with friends and loved ones while spending time at home. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 will ensure we build capacity in our healthcare system, and help protect the lives of those we love most. It’s important to emphasize that there are no plans to shut down grocery stores. People should continue to buy what you need for a week’s worth of groceries. I’m grateful to everyone making adjustments to fight this virus and protect others. Arizona will get through this, and we’ll do it together.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 20 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory 2-Week Extension of Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order 10 April 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Our goal is to get kids safely back in the classroom as soon as possible while providing parents and educators certainty so they can plan and make decisions. I’m grateful to Superintendent Hoffman for her continued partnership and leadership. We are unified in our efforts to address COVID-19, and will continue to keep parents and educators informed.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 16 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced a mandatory Closure of Arizona Schools Executive Order from 16 March through 27 March 2020: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“Over the past few weeks and in coordination with public health officials, we have been in close communication with school administrators to provide guidance and be a resource as it relates to the recent outbreak of COVID-19. As more schools announce closures and education administrators express staff shortages within their schools, now is the time to act. A statewide closure is the right thing to do. While this measure will not stop the spread of COVID-19, it will bring certainty and consistency in schools across Arizona.”— Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

On 11 March 2020, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) declared a State of Emergency: Office of the Governor: Doug Ducey

“There is no greater priority than the health and safety of Arizonans, and today’s efforts are a proactive approach to ensure the state has all the tools necessary to address the global spread of COVID-19. While our state is not currently facing the number of cases we’ve seen in some other states, we are anticipating additional positive cases — and we’re not taking any chances. Arizonans should not panic — our approach will be calm and steady. This Emergency Declaration and Executive Order continue our effort to protect public health and save lives.” — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)


Resources:

2020-04-25T19:41:51+00:00